This is from a group presentation on the ‘Global Positioning System (GPS)’ given on the 11th March 2011, at the University of Bath.
The Technology Strategy and Organisation module at Bath University required a group presentation on a technology of our choice. We were asked to analyse the maturity of the technology and gage the produce performance via the S-Curve model.
Introduction
The group selected Global Positioning System (GPS) as a technology rather than as a product as the application of the technology has rapidly diverisfied across sectors and products (which was lucky as another group chose GPS, but selected a product).
S-Curve
As a technology, we decided that GPS has matured, but can still improve and has yet to reach full market saturation. This claim caused some raised eye brows, as some believed the estimated position (on a unit-less graph) should be further along the S curve.
Our reasoning was due to the flexibility of the technology that found new markets once it was released from military restrictions. GPS moved from military to civil industrial navigation applications and therefore created a new market (new S Curve). As the technology was utilised within the public domain, market forces created smaller applications of GPS for personal outdoor use. The demand for personal location technology ensured that GPS was included in the next generation of smart phones.
We are currently seeing the application of personal GPS to things we care about such as our children, pets and high value objects. While this could help you find your keys and where you parked your car, other applications are obviously spying on cheating partners and stalking.
An extension of all S curves will be the identification and location of any and all items owned by military, industry and personally. During the talk we also wanted to raise awareness to the successful creation of ‘Big Brother’.
The application of a technology or product to only one S curve is misleading as there are a number of Key Performance Indicator (KPI) to consider such as accuracy, reliability and cost. Supporting and alternative technologies should also be analysed as other KPI factors might be size, battery life, ease of use. Switching to an alternative base technology might give a product an edge.
Trying to apply our vision of the GPS technolgy to a Product-Process Cycle would be meaningless so the application of GPS within mobile phones was used to demonstrate the analysis technique. GPS has been used within mobile phones for personal location, but it is a mature technology for this capability. While GPS accuracy is still limited by the USA Military, and dispite the European Union launching it’s own Galileo global navigation satellite system (GNSS)[1], the use of General packet radio service (GPRS) signal strength between know base station reciever towers is on the rise as a highly accurate, fast and reliable alternative.
Dominant Design
Using the Dominant Design Model, we were able to demonstrate the dominant applications and products throughout history to highlight that the need for a Global Positioning System (GPS) has existed for thousands of years and will continue into the challenges of inter-global positioning (space travel).
Diffusion Curve
Trying to apply the Diffusion Curve model caused some great discussions within the group, resulting in the example that the technology is still with the early majority within Europe and is maturing as GPS technology becomes a standard technology component in numerous items. An example position for china/India was given to highlight how other markets might have rapidly adopted the technology within its own products, with high consumer impact, leading to a quick progression from innovators, through early adopters to an (early) Early Majority position.
Discussion
Implications of these analysis models for technology strategy for these organisations and potential entrants include;
- They work well for a physical product evolution, but have some difficulty when applying contextually to complex systems.
- Our system was too big to handle within the set time scale of an afternoon; we set our scope boundaries too wide to successfully manage. Boundaries would need to be rationalized (reduced, simplified) for a proper analysis.
- Market evolution not product specific, looking at the technology meant that we had to track across multiple S curve models. The other group, would have had more
- More questions were generated than answers, systems scope understanding expanded.
- In application of the dominant design model highlighted how complex the system is.
References
[1] One of the political aims with Galileo is to provide a high-accuracy positioning system upon which European nations can rely independent from the Russian GLONASS and US GPS systems, which can be disabled for commercial users in times of war or conflict.
“Why Europe needs Galileo”. ESA. 2010-04-12. http://www.esa.int/esaNA/GGG0H750NDC_galileo_0.html. Retrieved 2011-03-10.
http://www.esa.int/esaNA/GGG0H750NDC_galileo_0.html
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